The Arab Spring strongly compounded Saudi Arabia’s
progressively increasing disillusionment with the US
when, to its utter consternation and deep anger, the US
failed to prevent the overthrow of Mubarak, a faithful
ally for more than three decades. US criticism of Gen Al
Sissi’s overthrowing of the Muslim Brotherhood
government of President Morsy and cutting off economic
and military assistance added fuel to the fire.
The West’s holding back of arms supplies to rebels
fighting against the Assad regime in Syria and the US
decision not to take military action against it for
breaching a publicly announced red-line, the use of
chemical weapons, added to Saudi Arabia’s growing
anger. After these disappointments, the sudden opening
of negotiations on the nuclear issue with Iran, the
rapidity with which an interim agreement was reached
and the continuing pursuit of a thaw in relations with
Iran represent in Saudi eyes a willful disregard of its
security concerns and sensitivities. Saudi Arabia has
maintained that no agreement will constrain the nuclear
programme and Iran would still be able to make the
bomb very quickly should it finally decide to do so.
From 2009, Saudi Arabia started sending signals from
the King downwards and has more than once since then
stated publicly that in the event Iran acquires the
capability to make nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia will
do so also.
Pakistan-Iran relations have been witnessing a serious
downturn in the past few months – Iran has threatened
military intervention to secure the release of its security
personnel and in the context of the continuing killing of
Shias; Iran has cancelled the much flaunted gas pipeline,
etc. A flurry of exchange of visits between Pakistan and
Saudi Arabia are coincidentally taking place during this
downturn. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud’s sudden
visit to Pakistan in January 2014 followed very soon
thereafter by the new Pakistani Army Chief’s visit to
Saudi Arabia and now Prince Salman choosing Pakistan
as the first country to visit after becoming Crown Prince
and Defence Minister has prompted a lot of speculative
commentary in the Western strategic community. Those
who closely follow Saudi Arabia’s relations with South
Asia believe that the Saudi Arabia-funded Pakistani
nuclear programme and payback time may be
approaching. Saudi Defence Minister Prince Sultan was
given privileged and complete access to Pakistani
nuclear installations in 1999 (and again in 2002) and
soon thereafter Dr AQ Khan visited Saudi Arabia. US
experts such as Bruce Reidel and Gary Saymore, who
should know, say that a secret and long-standing
agreement exists that Pakistan would provide the
Kingdom with nuclear technology and weapons should
Saudi Arabia feel threatened by a third party nuclear
programme. This would inevitably invite strong
reactions from the US and Iran and would also almost
surely evoke strong opposition from China which would
not want to jeopardise its overarching relationship with
the US for an issue far removed from its core national
interests. Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have strongly
denied any such intention and also reports that
Pakistan will, at Saudi request, be supplying
sophisticated weapons to rebels in Syria – this would
greatly anger Iran but will hardly make a difference in
Syria. However, both these contingencies are unlikely to
happen.
It is far more likely that these visits are in the context
of the domestic situation in Saudi Arabia. These are
delicate and sensitive times in Saudi Arabia – Crown
Prince Sultan and Crown Prince Nayef passed away in
quick succession in October 2011 and June 2012
respectively; the King is in his mid-nineties and his
health is fragile; Crown Prince Salman’s health is not
particularly robust; Saudi Arabia is approaching
uncharted territory in relation to the succession to the
throne. Massive unemployment, the popular appeal of
the Arab Spring, Sunni Islamic extremism, Shia
restiveness particularly in the oil-rich eastern provinces,
are factors that present serious putative security
concerns. Given the one-of-its-kind rather unique
Saudi-Pakistan relationship, assertively Sunni Pakistan
may be the perfect security partner to help meet internal
threats. Western security partners cannot be used while
Arabs will always be more problematic and risky.
Crown Prince Salman also paid a highly satisfying
three-day visit to India during which an MoU on defence
cooperation was amongst agreements signed which
build upon the relationship spelt out in the Delhi
Declaration of 2006 and the Riyadh Declaration of 2010,
both landmark, path-breaking documents signed
personally by King Abdullah with the Indian Prime
Minister. These established a wide-ranging strategic
partnership. An Indian defence minister had paid a first-
ever visit to Saudi Arabia in 2012. In contrast to
Pakistan, the interaction with India is in the context of
tentative beginnings of a potential reorientation of Saudi
foreign policy to move away from complete and total
dependence on the US. Prince Saud Al-Faisal, the Saudi
Foreign Minister, had given a thought provoking speech
in Manama, Bahrain, on 5 December 2004. The subject
was ‘Towards a New Framework for Regional Security’.
He said, inter alia, that "the international component of
the suggested Gulf security framework should engage
positively the emerging Asian powers as well, especially
China and India." Since then, this theme is increasingly
reiterated by leading Saudi personalities.
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